Social Cost of Carbon Archívum - Voluntary Carbon Registry

It feels like a sci-fi thriller

rampi — Mon, 06 Oct 2025 22:01:20 +0000

Wow, these guys (Bilal and Känzig) are coming up with increasingly staggering numbers as they refine their model and update the data. It feels like a sci-fi thriller where the protagonists dig deeper and deeper, only to discover the problem is much bigger than we thought. Let me quickly summarize what I see in the evolution (based on the abstracts and introductions, the key points emerge): May 2024 (original version): This is where it all starts. Their estimate: 1°C global temperature rise reduces world GDP by 12% at peak. Present-value welfare loss 31%, Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) $1056 per ton CO2. Under business-as-usual scenario, enormous damages, and they already emphasize that global temperature variability correlates much better with extreme events (e.g., floods, droughts) than local country-level data used by previous panels. Hence, six times greater damages than old estimates (1-3%). August 2024 (rev1): Minor refinement, but similar: SCC $1065, welfare loss 29%, still 12% GDP decline. More acknowledgments, but the essence doesn’t change much – perhaps data update or minor methodological tweak. November 2024: Here the numbers start rising. SCC $1367, welfare loss 25%, but they still report 12% GDP impact. New elements: stronger emphasis on long-term persistence, and updated database (e.g., ISIMIP extreme weather indicators). The introduction explains in more detail why global variability is better than local (more strongly predicts damaging events). September 2025 (latest): Boom! This is the drastic upgrade. Now 1°C rise reduces world GDP by more than 20% long-term (not just at peak). Present-value welfare loss over 30%, SCC over $1500 per ton. They switched databases (Barro-Ursúa + NOAA for long-term patterns, Penn World Tables for broader data), and emphasize that the permanent 1°C effect is now 20%+ GDP loss. For 2°C warming by 2100, 30%+ welfare loss – this is truly “existential threat” level. New assistants (e.g., Krzysztof Lisiecki), and the introduction is sharper: old estimates were underestimates because they didn’t capture global variability. What struck me first is how much the estimated damage increases over time – as if reality is catching up with the models, or the new data (e.g., recent extreme events) paints an increasingly darker picture. This isn’t just academic stuff: it implies that large countries (USA, EU) would benefit from decarbonizing even alone, because the costs are lower than the damages. Reality catches up with models – and now there’s a standard that states: carbon pricing is no game It’s like a sci-fi thriller unfolding before our eyes, where scientists aren’t just analyzing data but rewriting the economic reality of the future. Bilal and Känzig’s latest research paints an increasingly darker picture year after year of the price we pay for climate change – and the price is no longer just a metaphor. The Social Cost of Carbon (SCC), meaning the social cost of one ton of carbon dioxide emissions, has been rising steeply in scientific estimates since 2024. The series of model updates (May, August, November, then the latest version in September 2025) all point in the same direction: reality is much more expensive than we previously thought. 2024 – we only suspected According to last year’s models, 1°C global warming could cause up to 12% GDP reduction, with welfare loss around 30%. The SCC was still moving around $1056 per ton CO₂ at that time – six times higher than previous estimates. 2025 – now we know According to the latest September 2025 version, the same 1°C now comes with 20% global GDP loss, welfare damage above 30%, and SCC exceeding $1500 per ton. This is no longer an “environmental cost” but a civilization price list. The researchers emphasize: previous estimates underestimated global variability – meaning the unpredictable fluctuations of climate that actually drive extreme events (droughts, floods, heatwaves). This is what the old models couldn’t capture, but reality now does. Science now puts numbers on survival The formula is simple, and chilling: 1 ton CO₂ ≈ $1500 social damage. This realization is not only a scientific milestone but also an economic turning point. If we look at the real cost of emissions, even the most expensive decarbonization program is cheaper than passive waiting. The USA, the EU – indeed, any country – would benefit from acting even alone, because the damage has long exceeded the cost of collective inaction. Now there’s a standard that states all this Until now, science did the calculations, the market remained silent. But now the first international standard has appeared that connects the two worlds: the Social Cost of Carbon–Linked Carbon Index (SLCI Credit Price Standard™). This framework directly connects carbon footprint with social damage: Social Damage (USD) = Carbon Footprint (tCO₂) × SCC (USD/tCO₂) Meaning every emission has a quantifiable, monetizable price. The goal of SLCI Credit Price Standard™ is to ensure that carbon credit prices are no longer political bargaining or market compromise, but a mirror of real social damage. 2035 as the convergence year The standard sets a clear target: By 2030, carbon credit prices must reach at least 30–50% of SCC (450–750 USD/tCO₂), By 2035, they must fully converge with the social cost (approx. 1500 USD/tCO₂). This correction isn’t theoretical. This is the price of staying alive. Read the full document: SLCI Credit Price Standard™ – Social Cost of Carbon–Linked Carbon Index The currency of the future won’t be dollars or euros, but the price per ton of CO₂. And now we know what it’s worth. Source: ClimeNews | Kováts Andrea Éva

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The Social Cost of Carbon

rampi — Sat, 24 Jul 2021 17:46:48 +0000

Estimating the Benefits of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions. EPA and other federal agencies use estimates of the social cost of carbon (SC-CO2) to value the climate impacts of rulemakings. The SC-CO2 is a measure, in dollars, of the long-term damage done by a ton of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in a given year. This dollar figure also represents the value of damages avoided for a small emission reduction (i.e., the benefit of a CO2 reduction). The SC-CO2 is meant to be a comprehensive estimate of climate change damages and includes changes in net agricultural productivity, human health, property damages from increased flood risk, and changes in energy system costs, such as reduced costs for heating and increased costs for air conditioning. However, given current modeling and data limitations, it does not include all important damages. The IPCC Fifth Assessment report observed that SC-CO2 estimates omit various impacts that would likely increase damages. The models used to develop SC-CO2 estimates, known as integrated assessment models, do not currently include all of the important physical, ecological, and economic impacts of climate change recognized in the climate change literature because of a lack of precise information on the nature of damages and because the science incorporated into these models naturally lags behind the most recent research. Nonetheless, the current estimates of the SC-CO2 are a useful measure to assess the climate impacts of CO2 emission changes. EPA and other federal agencies also use estimates of the social cost of methane (SC-CH4) and the social cost of nitrous oxide (SC-N2O) in analyses of regulatory actions that are projected to influence CH4 or N2O emissions in a manner consistent with how CO2 emission changes are valued. The SC-CH4 and SC-N2O estimates are taken from a paper by Marten et al. (2015a and 2015b), which provided the first set of published SC-CH4 and SC-N2O estimates that are consistent with the modeling assumptions underlying the SC-CO2 estimates. Both the methodology for valuing the damages from CH4 and N2O emissions and the application of the SC-CH4 and SC-N2O estimates to regulatory cost-benefit analysis have been subject to rigorous independent peer review and public comment. See the Addendum to the SC-CO2 Technical Support Document (TSD) for further details. As discussed in the 2010 SC-CO2 TSD, estimates of the social cost of these greenhouse gases increase over time because future emissions are expected to produce larger incremental damages as physical and economic systems become more stressed in response to greater climatic change, and because GDP is growing over time and many damage categories are modeled as proportional to gross GDP. The tables below present the current set of SC-CO2, SC-CH4 and SC-N2O estimates used in Federal regulatory analyses to value emissions changes occurring in certain years. The full set of annual SC-CO2 estimates between 2010 and 2050 is reported in the Appendix to the 2016 TSD. The Addendum to the TSD presents the full set of annual SC-CH4 and SC-N2O estimates between 2010 and 2050. The full set of model results for the SC-CO2, SC-CH4 and SC-N2O are available on the Office of Management and Budget’s (OMB) website. Social Cost of CO2, 2015-2050 a (in 2007 dollars per metric ton CO2) Source: Technical Support Document: Technical Update of the Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis Under Executive Order 12866 (May 2013, Revised August 2016) Discount Rate and Statistic Year 5% Average 3% Average 2.5% Average High Impact (95th pct at 3%) 2015 $11 $36 $56 $105 2020 $12 $42 $62 $123 2025 $14 $46 $68 $138 2030 $16 $50 $73 $152 2035 $18 $55 $78 $168 2040 $21 $60 $84 $183 2045 $23 $64 $89 $197 2050 $26 $69 $95 $212 aThe SC-CO2 values are dollar-year and emissions-year specific. Social Cost of CH4, 2015-2050a (in 2007 dollars per metric ton CH4) Source: Addendum to the Technical Support Document for the Social Cost of Carbon: Application of the Methodology to Estimate the Social Cost of Methane and the Social Cost of Nitrous Oxide (August 2016) Discount Rate and Statistic Year 5% Average 3% Average 2.5% Average High Impact (95th pct at 3%) 2015 $450 $1,000 $1,400 $2,800 2020 $540 $1,200 $1,600 $3,200 2025 $650 $1,400 $1,800 $3,700 2030 $760 $1,600 $2,000 $4,200 2035 $900 $1,800 $2,300 $4,900 2040 $1,000 $2,000 $2,600 $5,500 2045 $1,200 $2,300 $2,800 $6,100 2050 $1,300 $2,500 $3,100 $6,700 aThe SC-CH4 values are dollar-year and emissions-year specific. Social Cost of N2O, 2015-2050a (in 2007 dollars per metric ton N2O) Source: Addendum to the Technical Support Document for the Social Cost of Carbon: Application of the Methodology to Estimate the Social Cost of Methane and the Social Cost of Nitrous Oxide (August 2016) Discount Rate and Statistic Year 5% Average 3% Average 2.5% Average High Impact (95th pct at 3%) 2015 $4,000 $13,000 $20,000 $35,000 2020 $4,700 $15,000 $22,000 $39,000 2025 $5,500 $17,000 $24,000 $44,000 2030 $6,300 $19,000 $27,000 $49,000 2035 $7,400 $21,000 $29,000 $55,000 2040 $8,400 $23,000 $32,000 $60,000 2045 $9,500 $25,000 $34,000 $66,000 2050 $11,000 $27,000 $37,000 $72,000 aThe SC-N2O values are dollar-year and emissions-year specific. EPA has used estimates of SC-CO2 to analyze the carbon dioxide impacts of various rulemakings since 2008. The interagency group’s recommended estimates, which were first issued in 2010, have been used to analyze both rulemakings directly targeting carbon dioxide emissions, such as the car and truck standards, as well as others that set standards for conventional or toxic pollutants that indirectly affect carbon dioxide emissions, such as the final rulemaking to control mercury and other air toxic pollutants (PDF, 510 pp, 8.3 MB) from power plants. The rulemakings directly targeting carbon dioxide emissions have projected notable climate-related benefits for society. For example, the projected net present value of carbon dioxide mitigation benefits over the next forty years from three vehicle rulemakings was estimated to range from $78 billion to $1.2 trillion ($2010), depending on which of the four SC-CO2 estimates were used (i.e., the average SC-CO2 at 5, 3, and 2.5 percent and the 95th percentile SC-CO2 at 3 percent). These three rulemakings are: The Joint EPA/Department of Transportation Rulemaking to establish Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards (2012-2016) Joint EPA/Department of Transportation Rulemaking to establish Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards Joint EPA/Department of Transportation Rulemaking to establish Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards (2017-2025) EPA has also used the SC-CH4 and SC-N2O estimates to estimate the benefits of reductions in non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in recent rulemakings, such as the final emission standards for New and Modified Sources in the Oil and Natural Gas Sector (see RIA Chapter 4). For more information about the SC-CO2, see the SC-CO2 Fact Sheet, as well as the OMB Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases site, which presents the SC-CO2 TSD, Addendum on non-CO2 greenhouse gases, and the OMB response to the public comments received through its solicitation for comments on the SC-CO2 site estimates used in Federal regulatory analyses. In this response, OMB announced plans to obtain expert, independent advice from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine EXIT on how to approach future updates to the estimates. In January 2016, the Academies issued an interim (Phase 1) report which recommended against a near-term update of the SC-CO2 estimates within the existing modeling framework. Longer-term recommendations about how to approach a comprehensive update to the estimates, including research priorities, are expected in the Academies’ final report in January 2017. See also the following documents for information about ongoing research to improve the SC-CO2. EPA and Department of Energy hosted a series of workshops to inform SC-CO2: workshop one, workshop two. EPA funded a workshop EXIT on discounting, a critical SC-CO2 modeling input. World-recognized experts discussed how the benefits and costs of regulations should be discounted for projects with long time horizons.

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