{"id":36,"date":"2021-07-24T19:46:48","date_gmt":"2021-07-24T17:46:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/voluntaryregistry.com\/?page_id=36"},"modified":"2021-12-16T16:28:09","modified_gmt":"2021-12-16T15:28:09","slug":"az-uhg-tarsadalmi-koltsege","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/voluntaryregistry.com\/en\/az-uhg-tarsadalmi-koltsege\/","title":{"rendered":"The Social Cost of Carbon"},"content":{"rendered":"

Estimating the Benefits of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions.<\/span><\/h2>\n

EPA and other federal agencies use estimates of the social cost of carbon (SC-CO2<\/sub>) to value the climate impacts of rulemakings. The SC-CO2<\/sub>\u00a0is a measure, in dollars, of the long-term damage done by a ton of carbon dioxide (CO2<\/sub>)\u00a0emissions in a given year. \u00a0This dollar figure also represents the value of damages avoided for a small emission reduction (i.e., the benefit of a CO2<\/sub>\u00a0reduction).<\/p>\n

The SC-CO2<\/sub>\u00a0is meant to be a comprehensive estimate of climate change damages and includes changes in net agricultural productivity, human health, property damages from increased flood risk, and changes in energy system costs, such as reduced costs for heating and increased costs for air conditioning. However, given current modeling and data limitations, it does not include all important damages. The IPCC Fifth Assessment report observed that SC-CO2<\/sub>\u00a0estimates omit various impacts that would likely increase damages. The models used to develop SC-CO2<\/sub>\u00a0estimates, known as integrated assessment models, do not currently include all of the important physical, ecological, and economic impacts of climate change recognized in the climate change literature because of a lack of precise information on the nature of damages and because the science incorporated into these models naturally lags behind the most recent research. Nonetheless, the current estimates of the SC-CO2<\/sub>\u00a0are a useful measure to assess the climate impacts of CO2<\/sub>\u00a0emission changes.<\/p>\n

EPA and other federal agencies also use estimates of the social cost of methane (SC-CH4<\/sub>) and the social cost of nitrous oxide (SC-N2<\/sub>O) in analyses of regulatory actions that are projected to influence CH4<\/sub>\u00a0or N2<\/sub>O emissions in a manner consistent with how CO2<\/sub>\u00a0emission changes are valued. The SC-CH4<\/sub>\u00a0and SC-N2<\/sub>O estimates are taken from a paper by Marten et al.\u00a0(2015a<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a02015b<\/a>), which provided the first set of published\u00a0SC-CH4<\/sub>\u00a0and SC-N2<\/sub>O estimates that are consistent with the modeling assumptions underlying the SC-CO2<\/sub>\u00a0estimates. Both the methodology for valuing the damages from\u00a0CH4<\/sub>\u00a0and N2<\/sub>O emissions and the application of the\u00a0SC-CH4<\/sub>\u00a0and SC-N2<\/sub>O estimates to regulatory cost-benefit analysis have been subject to rigorous independent peer review and public comment. See the\u00a0Addendum<\/a>\u00a0to the SC-CO2<\/sub>\u00a0Technical Support Document (TSD) for further details.<\/p>\n

As discussed in the\u00a02010\u00a0SC-CO2<\/sub>\u00a0TSD<\/a>, estimates of the social cost of these greenhouse gases increase over time because future emissions are expected to produce larger incremental damages as physical and economic systems become more stressed in response to greater climatic change, and because GDP is growing over time and many damage categories are modeled as proportional to gross GDP.<\/p>\n

\n

The tables below present\u00a0the current set of SC-CO2<\/sub>,\u00a0SC-CH4<\/sub>\u00a0and SC-N2<\/sub>O estimates used in Federal regulatory analyses to value emissions changes occurring in certain years. The full set of annual SC-CO2<\/sub>\u00a0estimates between 2010 and 2050 is reported in the Appendix to the\u00a02016 TSD<\/a>. \u00a0The\u00a0Addendum to the TSD<\/a>\u00a0presents the full set of annual\u00a0SC-CH4<\/sub>\u00a0and SC-N2<\/sub>O estimates between 2010 and 2050. The full set of model results for the SC-CO2<\/sub>,\u00a0<\/sub>SC-CH4<\/sub>\u00a0and SC-N2<\/sub>O are available on the\u00a0Office of Management and Budget’s (OMB) website<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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Social Cost of CO2<\/sub>, 2015-2050\u00a0a\u00a0<\/sup>(in 2007 dollars per metric ton CO2<\/sub>)<\/strong>
\nSource:\u00a0Technical Support Document<\/a>: \u00a0Technical Update of the Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis Under Executive Order 12866 (May 2013, Revised August 2016)<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/th>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Discount Rate and Statistic<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Year<\/th>\n5% Average<\/th>\n3% Average<\/th>\n2.5% Average<\/th>\nHigh Impact
\n(95th\u00a0pct at 3%)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
2015<\/strong><\/td>\n$11<\/td>\n$36<\/strong><\/td>\n$56<\/td>\n$105<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2020<\/strong><\/td>\n$12<\/td>\n$42<\/strong><\/td>\n$62<\/td>\n$123<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2025<\/strong><\/td>\n$14<\/td>\n$46<\/strong><\/td>\n$68<\/td>\n$138<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2030<\/strong><\/td>\n$16<\/td>\n$50<\/strong><\/td>\n$73<\/td>\n$152<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2035<\/strong><\/td>\n$18<\/td>\n$55<\/strong><\/td>\n$78<\/td>\n$168<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2040<\/strong><\/td>\n$21<\/td>\n$60<\/strong><\/td>\n$84<\/td>\n$183<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2045<\/strong><\/td>\n$23<\/td>\n$64<\/strong><\/td>\n$89<\/td>\n$197<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2050<\/strong><\/td>\n$26<\/td>\n$69<\/strong><\/td>\n$95<\/td>\n$212<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

a<\/sup>The SC-CO2<\/sub>\u00a0values are dollar-year and emissions-year specific.<\/p>\n

Social Cost of CH4<\/sub>, 2015-2050<\/strong>a<\/sup>\u00a0(in 2007 dollars per metric ton CH4<\/sub>)<\/strong>
\nSource: Addendum to the Technical Support Document for the Social Cost of Carbon: Application of the Methodology to Estimate the Social Cost of Methane and the Social Cost of Nitrous Oxide (August 2016)<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/th>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Discount Rate and Statistic<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Year<\/th>\n5% Average<\/th>\n3% Average<\/th>\n2.5% Average<\/th>\nHigh Impact
\n(95th\u00a0pct at 3%)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
2015<\/strong><\/td>\n$450<\/td>\n$1,000<\/strong><\/td>\n$1,400<\/td>\n$2,800<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2020<\/strong><\/td>\n$540<\/td>\n$1,200<\/strong><\/td>\n$1,600<\/td>\n$3,200<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2025<\/strong><\/td>\n$650<\/td>\n$1,400<\/strong><\/td>\n$1,800<\/td>\n$3,700<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2030<\/strong><\/td>\n$760<\/td>\n$1,600<\/strong><\/td>\n$2,000<\/td>\n$4,200<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2035<\/strong><\/td>\n$900<\/td>\n$1,800<\/strong><\/td>\n$2,300<\/td>\n$4,900<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2040<\/strong><\/td>\n$1,000<\/td>\n$2,000<\/strong><\/td>\n$2,600<\/td>\n$5,500<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2045<\/strong><\/td>\n$1,200<\/td>\n$2,300<\/strong><\/td>\n$2,800<\/td>\n$6,100<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2050<\/strong><\/td>\n$1,300<\/td>\n$2,500<\/strong><\/td>\n$3,100<\/td>\n$6,700<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u200ba<\/sup>The SC-CH4<\/sub>\u00a0values are dollar-year and emissions-year specific.<\/p>\n

Social Cost of N2<\/sub>O, 2015-2050a<\/sup>\u00a0(in 2007 dollars per metric ton N2<\/sub>O)<\/strong>
\nSource: Addendum to the Technical Support Document for the Social Cost of Carbon: Application of the Methodology to Estimate the Social Cost of Methane and the Social Cost of Nitrous Oxide (August 2016)<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/th>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Discount Rate and Statistic<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Year<\/th>\n5% Average<\/th>\n3% Average<\/th>\n2.5% Average<\/th>\nHigh Impact
\n(95th\u00a0pct at 3%)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
2015<\/strong><\/td>\n$4,000<\/td>\n$13,000<\/strong><\/td>\n$20,000<\/td>\n$35,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2020<\/strong><\/td>\n$4,700<\/td>\n$15,000<\/strong><\/td>\n$22,000<\/td>\n$39,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2025<\/strong><\/td>\n$5,500<\/td>\n$17,000<\/strong><\/td>\n$24,000<\/td>\n$44,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2030<\/strong><\/td>\n$6,300<\/td>\n$19,000<\/strong><\/td>\n$27,000<\/td>\n$49,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2035<\/strong><\/td>\n$7,400<\/td>\n$21,000<\/strong><\/td>\n$29,000<\/td>\n$55,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2040<\/strong><\/td>\n$8,400<\/td>\n$23,000<\/strong><\/td>\n$32,000<\/td>\n$60,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2045<\/strong><\/td>\n$9,500<\/td>\n$25,000<\/strong><\/td>\n$34,000<\/td>\n$66,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2050<\/strong><\/td>\n$11,000<\/td>\n$27,000<\/strong><\/td>\n$37,000<\/td>\n$72,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u200ba<\/sup>The SC-N2<\/sub>O\u00a0values are dollar-year and emissions-year specific.<\/p>\n

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EPA has used estimates of SC-CO2<\/sub>\u00a0to analyze the carbon dioxide impacts of various rulemakings since 2008. The interagency group’s recommended estimates, which were first issued in\u00a02010<\/a>, have been used to analyze both\u00a0rulemakings directly targeting carbon dioxide emissions, such as the car and truck standards, as well as others that set standards for conventional or toxic pollutants that indirectly affect carbon dioxide emissions, such as the final rulemaking to control\u00a0mercury and other air toxic pollutants<\/a>\u00a0(PDF, 510 pp, 8.3 MB)<\/small>\u00a0from power plants. The rulemakings directly targeting carbon dioxide emissions have projected notable climate-related benefits for society. For example, the projected net present value of carbon dioxide mitigation benefits over the next forty years from three vehicle rulemakings was estimated to range from $78 billion to $1.2 trillion ($2010), depending on which of the four SC-CO2<\/sub>\u00a0estimates were used (i.e., the average SC-CO2<\/sub>\u00a0at 5, 3, and 2.5 percent and the 95th percentile SC-CO2<\/sub>\u00a0at 3 percent). These three rulemakings are:<\/p>\n