{"id":467912,"date":"2024-07-01T16:59:37","date_gmt":"2024-07-01T14:59:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/voluntaryregistry.com\/?page_id=467912"},"modified":"2025-11-03T14:49:41","modified_gmt":"2025-11-03T13:49:41","slug":"az-eghajlatvaltozas-makrogazdasagi-hatasa","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/voluntaryregistry.com\/ro\/az-eghajlatvaltozas-makrogazdasagi-hatasa\/","title":{"rendered":"Impactul macroeconomic al schimb\u0103rilor climatice"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Impactul macroeconomic al schimb\u0103rilor climatice: Temperatur\u0103 global\u0103 vs. local\u0103<\/span><\/strong> <strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Adrien Bilal &#038; Diego R. K\u00e4nzig &#8211; Mai 2024<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201eConform estim\u0103rilor din <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w32450\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">studiu<\/a>, daunele macroeconomice ale schimb\u0103rilor climatice sunt de \u0219ase ori mai mari dec\u00e2t se credea anterior. Exploat\u0103m variabilitatea natural\u0103 a temperaturii globale \u0219i ne baz\u0103m pe abaterile seriilor temporale. O cre\u0219tere de 1\u00b0C a temperaturii globale duce la o sc\u0103dere de 12% a PIB-ului mondial. \u0218ocurile de temperatur\u0103 global\u0103 sunt mult mai puternic corelate cu evenimentele climatice extreme dec\u00e2t \u0219ocurile de temperatur\u0103 la nivel de \u021bar\u0103, utilizate \u00een mod obi\u0219nuit \u00een literatura de specialitate, ceea ce explic\u0103 de ce estimarea noastr\u0103 este semnificativ mai mare. Folosim dovezi de form\u0103 redus\u0103 pentru a estima func\u021bii structurale de daune \u00eentr-un model standard de cre\u0219tere neoclasic. Rezultatele noastre sugereaz\u0103 <strong>un cost social al carbonului de <\/strong>1.056 USD pe ton\u0103 (<a href=\"https:\/\/res.cloudinary.com\/voluntaryregistry\/images\/v1719844457\/w32450\/w32450.pdf?_i=AA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Mai 2024<\/a>). (Actualizare: <a href=\"https:\/\/res.cloudinary.com\/voluntaryregistry\/images\/v1762173176\/w32450_2024.Aug_.rev1_\/w32450_2024.Aug_.rev1_.pdf?_i=AA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">August 2024<\/a> <strong>1065<\/strong> USD\/ton\u0103 CO<sub>2<\/sub>, <a href=\"https:\/\/res.cloudinary.com\/voluntaryregistry\/images\/v1742379924\/w32450_2024.nov_\/w32450_2024.nov_.pdf?_i=AA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Noiembrie 2024<\/a> aceast\u0103 valoare a fost <strong>1367<\/strong> USD\/ton\u0103 CO<sub>2<\/sub>, iar p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een <a href=\"https:\/\/res.cloudinary.com\/voluntaryregistry\/images\/v1762173183\/w32450_2025.Sept_-1\/w32450_2025.Sept_-1.pdf?_i=AA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Septembrie 2025<\/a> a crescut la <strong>1500<\/strong> USD\/ton\u0103 CO<sub>2<\/sub> &#8230;sec.) Un scenariu standard de \u00eenc\u0103lzire duce la o pierdere de bun\u0103stare de 31% \u00een termeni de valoare actual\u0103.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"border: 0px solid #ddd; border-radius: 8px;\" src=\"https:\/\/egyablakos.hu\/scc\/en\/scc_data.php\" width=\"100%\" height=\"1420\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ambele sunt de ordin de m\u0103rime mai mari dec\u00e2t estim\u0103rile anterioare \u0219i implic\u0103 faptul c\u0103 politicile unilaterale de reducere a carbonului sunt rentabile pentru \u021b\u0103ri mari precum Statele Unite.\u201d &#8211; acesta este rezumatul unui nou rezultat de cercetare cu urm\u0103toarele detalii.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/res.cloudinary.com\/voluntaryregistry\/images\/f_auto,q_auto:eco\/v1719846798\/proposition1\/proposition1.jpg?_i=AA\"><img width=\"898\" height=\"577\" data-public-id=\"proposition1\/proposition1.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-post-467912 wp-image-473532 size-full\" title=\"Impactul macroeconomic al schimb\u0103rilor climatice\" src=\"https:\/\/res.cloudinary.com\/voluntaryregistry\/images\/w_898,h_577,c_scale\/f_auto,q_auto:eco\/v1719846798\/proposition1\/proposition1.jpg?_i=AA\" alt=\"Impactul macroeconomic al schimb\u0103rilor climatice\" data-format=\"jpg\" data-transformations=\"f_auto,q_auto:eco\" data-version=\"1719846798\" data-seo=\"1\" data-responsive=\"1\" srcset=\"https:\/\/res.cloudinary.com\/voluntaryregistry\/images\/w_898,h_577,c_scale\/f_auto,q_auto:eco\/v1719846798\/proposition1\/proposition1.jpg?_i=AA 898w, https:\/\/res.cloudinary.com\/voluntaryregistry\/images\/w_880,h_565,c_scale\/f_auto,q_auto:eco\/v1719846798\/proposition1\/proposition1.jpg?_i=AA 880w, https:\/\/res.cloudinary.com\/voluntaryregistry\/images\/w_800,h_514,c_scale\/f_auto,q_auto:eco\/v1719846798\/proposition1\/proposition1.jpg?_i=AA 800w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 898px) 100vw, 898px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">O nou\u0103 analiz\u0103 arat\u0103 c\u0103 impactul economic al \u00eenc\u0103lzirii globale este de 6 ori mai mare dec\u00e2t era a\u0219teptat<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00cen 2018, <strong>William Nordhaus<\/strong> a primit Premiul Nobel pentru Economie pentru <a href=\"https:\/\/voluntaryregistry.com\/az-uhg-tarsadalmi-koltsege\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">cercetarea<\/a> sa, care a demonstrat c\u0103 o cre\u0219tere de 1\u00b0C a temperaturii medii globale ar duce la o sc\u0103dere de 1-3% a produc\u021biei economice globale. De atunci, aceasta a fost viziunea conven\u021bional\u0103 asupra impacturilor economice ale \u00eenc\u0103lzirii globale, dar un nou studiu realizat de Adrien Bilal de la Universitatea Harvard \u0219i Diego K\u00e4nzig de la Universitatea Northwestern ajunge la o concluzie foarte diferit\u0103.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00cen lucrarea lor de cercetare intitulat\u0103 <strong>\u201eImpactul macroeconomic al schimb\u0103rilor climatice\u201d<\/strong>, publicat\u0103 \u00een mai 2024: Temperatur\u0103 global\u0103 vs. local\u0103, ei concluzioneaz\u0103 c\u0103 impactul economic al \u00eenc\u0103lzirii globale este de \u0219ase ori mai mare dec\u00e2t ceea ce a afirmat Nordhaus. \u00cen introducere, autorii explic\u0103: <strong>\u201eAjungem la aceast\u0103 concluzie \u00een doi pa\u0219i. \u00cen primul r\u00e2nd, ne baz\u0103m pe o abordare de prognoz\u0103 local\u0103 a seriilor temporale pentru a estima impactul \u0219ocurilor de temperatur\u0103 global\u0103 asupra produsului intern brut (PIB).\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\u201eAceast\u0103 abordare exploateaz\u0103 variabilitatea natural\u0103 a temperaturii medii globale \u2013 sursa de fluctua\u021bie cea mai apropiat\u0103 de schimb\u0103rile climatice \u2013 despre care ar\u0103t\u0103m c\u0103 este un predictor mult mai puternic al evenimentelor climatice extreme dec\u00e2t temperatura la nivel de \u021bar\u0103. Constat\u0103m c\u0103 o cre\u0219tere de 1\u00b0C a temperaturii globale reduce PIB-ul mondial cu 12% la punctul s\u0103u maxim. \u00cen al doilea r\u00e2nd, folosim rezultatele noastre de form\u0103 redus\u0103 pentru a estima func\u021bii structurale de daune \u00eentr-un model simplu de cre\u0219tere neoclasic. Constat\u0103m c\u0103 schimb\u0103rile climatice duc la o pierdere de bun\u0103stare de 31% \u00een valoare actual\u0103 \u0219i la un cost social al carbonului de 1.056 USD pe ton\u0103.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Impactul masiv al \u00eenc\u0103lzirii globale asupra economiei<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nzz.ch\/wirtschaft\/schaeden-durch-klimawandel-hoeher-als-bisher-gedacht-ld.1832092\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Neue Z\u00fcrcher Zeitung<\/a>, un ziar de limb\u0103 german\u0103 elve\u021bian fondat \u00een 1780, este cunoscut pentru reportajele sale detaliate despre afacerile interna\u021bionale. \u00centr-un articol despre cercetarea economic\u0103 realizat\u0103 de Bilal \u0219i K\u00e4nzig, se scrie c\u0103 efectele pe termen lung ale \u00eenc\u0103lzirii globale asupra economiei ar fi enorme \u2013 comparabile cu Marea Depresiune din anii 1930. Cu toate acestea, aceasta a fost doar un eveniment temporar (de\u0219i cei afecta\u021bi nu au sim\u021bit-o ca atare), \u00een timp ce schimb\u0103rile climatice vor avea un impact timp de secole.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">K\u00e4nzig, de origine elve\u021bian\u0103, a declarat pentru NZZ: <strong>\u201eC\u00e2nd am v\u0103zut pentru prima dat\u0103 rezultatul, am fost \u0219oca\u021bi.\u201d<\/strong> El \u0219i coautorul s\u0103u, Adrien Bilal, au revizuit cercetarea \u0219i au testat \u00een mod repetat modelul utilizat. Dar, \u00een cele din urm\u0103, au fost convin\u0219i de rezultatele lor, care sunt deosebit de surprinz\u0103toare din perspectiv\u0103 economic\u0103. <strong>\u201ePe de alt\u0103 parte, rezultatul este foarte \u00een concordan\u021b\u0103 cu cercet\u0103rile din \u0219tiin\u021ba climatic\u0103\u201d,<\/strong> a spus K\u00e4nzig. <strong>\u201eC\u00e2nd vorbim cu oamenii de \u0219tiin\u021b\u0103 care studiaz\u0103 clima, ei picteaz\u0103 o imagine mult mai dramatic\u0103\u201d<\/strong> dec\u00e2t ceea ce a prezentat William Nordhaus acum \u0219ase ani.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">De unde provine aceast\u0103 discrepan\u021b\u0103 \u00eentre cercet\u0103rile anterioare \u0219i noul studiu? La urma urmei, diferen\u021ba este destul de uluitoare. K\u00e4nzig \u0219i Bilal au observat c\u0103 calculele anterioare ale modelelor economice foloseau date meteorologice specifice fiec\u0103rei \u021b\u0103ri pentru a trage concluzii despre impacturile economice. Cu toate acestea, aceast\u0103 analiz\u0103 ignor\u0103 faptul c\u0103 <strong>schimb\u0103rile climatice sunt un fenomen global.<\/strong> Datele specifice fiec\u0103rei \u021b\u0103ri, de exemplu, nu includ temperaturile oceanelor, de\u0219i acestea influen\u021beaz\u0103 foarte mult modul \u00een care se dezvolt\u0103 furtunile \u00eenainte de a se deplasa \u00een interiorul uscatului.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Analiz\u0103 cuprinz\u0103toare<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Concluzia general\u0103 a <a href=\"https:\/\/res.cloudinary.com\/voluntaryregistry\/images\/v1719844450\/bk_micc\/bk_micc.pdf?_i=AA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>studiului<\/strong><\/a> este c\u0103 evenimentele meteorologice extreme, cum ar fi valurile de c\u0103ldur\u0103, ploile toren\u021biale sau v\u00e2nturile puternice, vor cre\u0219te mai mult dec\u00e2t se presupunea anterior \u00een modelele economice utilizate. Cu c\u00e2t sunt mai multe valuri de c\u0103ldur\u0103, cu at\u00e2t scade productivitatea, nu doar pentru lucr\u0103torii din exterior, ci \u0219i pentru cei din birouri. Evenimente precum \u00eentreruperile de curent sunt, de asemenea, mai probabile s\u0103 apar\u0103. O alt\u0103 abordare nou\u0103 a studiului este c\u0103 analizeaz\u0103 nu doar daunele cauzate de sc\u0103derea productivit\u0103\u021bii, ci \u0219i pierderile de capital. <strong>\u201ePloile, inunda\u021biile sau furtunile vor provoca daune semnificative infrastructurii\u201d,<\/strong> spune K\u00e4nzig. Drumurile, liniile electrice \u0219i alte infrastructuri vor fi distruse.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Aceast\u0103 cercetare recent\u0103 arat\u0103 c\u0103, deoarece daunele poten\u021biale sunt at\u00e2t de mari, investi\u021biile \u00een protec\u021bia climatului sunt mult mai profitabile dec\u00e2t se credea anterior. Activi\u0219tii pentru clim\u0103 consider\u0103 c\u0103 aceast\u0103 nou\u0103 cercetare ar putea duce la o reconsiderare a politicii climatice interna\u021bionale \u2013 de exemplu, \u00een ceea ce prive\u0219te investi\u021biile \u00een tehnologii prietenoase cu mediul, care vizeaz\u0103 atenuarea \u00eenc\u0103lzirii globale.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">K\u00e4nzig sper\u0103 \u0219i el la acest lucru. <strong>\u201eClima este un subiect care \u00eemi este foarte drag\u201d,<\/strong> spune el. La \u00eenceputul carierei, a efectuat stagii la Banca Na\u021bional\u0103 a Elve\u021biei \u0219i la Bank of England. El voia de fapt s\u0103 cerceteze politica monetar\u0103, <strong>\u201edar apoi am realizat c\u0103, av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere importan\u021ba enorm\u0103 a schimb\u0103rilor climatice, se face prea pu\u021bin\u0103 cercetare economic\u0103 pe aceast\u0103 tem\u0103\u201d,<\/strong> a spus el.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Reac\u021bia la \u201eCercetarea\u201d<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">De la publicarea studiului, a existat un acord larg \u00een comunit\u0103\u021bile economice \u0219i \u0219tiin\u021bifice, dar au fost exprimate \u0219i critici. Unii sus\u021bin c\u0103 calculele utilizate \u00een cel mai recent model nu iau \u00een considerare faptul c\u0103 lumea se adapteaz\u0103 la schimb\u0103rile climatice. K\u00e4nzig spune c\u0103 aceasta este o obiec\u021bie valid\u0103. <strong>\u201eDar ast\u0103zi, nimeni nu poate spune c\u00e2t va investi de fapt lumea \u00een m\u0103suri de adaptare.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Al\u021bii critic\u0103 faptul c\u0103 rezultatele sunt prea optimiste, deoarece analiza nu \u021bine cont de a\u0219a-numitele puncte de inflexiune \u2013 evenimente \u00een care un ecosistem se pr\u0103bu\u0219e\u0219te din cauza \u00eenc\u0103lzirii \u2013 care ar avea consecin\u021be catastrofale. K\u00e4nzig a spus c\u0103 r\u0103m\u00e2ne convins c\u0103 daunele economice cauzate de schimb\u0103rile climatice au fost subestimate semnificativ p\u00e2n\u0103 acum \u0219i c\u0103 fiecare nou\u0103 perspectiv\u0103, cum ar fi acest nou studiu, serve\u0219te la informarea oamenilor despre gravitatea crizei climatice iminente rezultat\u0103 din \u00eenc\u0103lzirea global\u0103.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Concluzii despre \u00eenc\u0103lzirea global\u0103 \u0219i economie<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00cen concluzia cercet\u0103rii lor, autorii scriu:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201e\u00cen acest studiu, ar\u0103t\u0103m c\u0103 impactul <a href=\"https:\/\/cleantechnica.com\/2023\/07\/26\/how-do-we-know-co2-is-causing-global-warming\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">schimb\u0103rilor climatice<\/a> asupra activit\u0103\u021bii economice este semnificativ. Exploat\u00e2nd variabilitatea natural\u0103 a temperaturii medii globale, ob\u021binem estim\u0103ri ale seriilor temporale care sunt reprezentative pentru efectele generale ale \u00eenc\u0103lzirii globale. Constat\u0103m c\u0103 o cre\u0219tere de 1\u00b0C a temperaturii globale reduce \u00een mod persistent PIB-ul global, cu o pierdere maxim\u0103 de 12%. Acest efect mare se datoreaz\u0103 cre\u0219terii evenimentelor climatice extreme.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201e\u00cen schimb, \u0219ocurile de temperatur\u0103 local\u0103 utilizate \u00een literatura de specialitate tradi\u021bional\u0103 duc la cre\u0219teri minime ale evenimentelor extreme \u0219i la impacturi economice mult mai mici. Rezultatele noastre implic\u0103 colectiv un cost social al carbonului (SCC) de 1.056 USD\/tCO2 \u0219i o pierdere de bun\u0103stare de 31% \u00eentr-un scenariu moderat de \u00eenc\u0103lzire. Aceste impacturi sunt comparabile cu <em>a duce un r\u0103zboi major pe teritoriul propriu pentru totdeauna<\/em> (sublinierea ad\u0103ugat\u0103). Rezultatele noastre nu doar arat\u0103 c\u0103 schimb\u0103rile climatice reprezint\u0103 o amenin\u021bare serioas\u0103 pentru economia global\u0103, dar au \u0219i implica\u021bii semnificative pentru politicile de reducere a carbonului. Multe interven\u021bii de reducere a carbonului cost\u0103 \u00eentre 27 \u0219i 95 USD pe ton\u0103 de CO2 redus\u0103. Valoarea tradi\u021bional\u0103 a SCC (151 USD\/tCO2) implic\u0103 faptul c\u0103 aceste politici sunt rentabile doar dac\u0103 guvernele internalizeaz\u0103 beneficiile pentru \u00eentreaga lume, a\u0219a cum este captat de SCC. Cu toate acestea, un guvern care internalizeaz\u0103 doar beneficiile interne evalueaz\u0103 beneficiile atenu\u0103rii folosind costul intern al carbonului (DCC).\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201eDCC-ul este \u00eentotdeauna mai mic dec\u00e2t SCC-ul, deoarece daunele pentru o singur\u0103 \u021bar\u0103 sunt mai mici dec\u00e2t daunele pentru \u00eentreaga lume. De exemplu, estim\u0103rile tradi\u021bionale bazate pe \u0219ocuri locale sugereaz\u0103 c\u0103 DCC-ul SUA este de 30 USD\/tCO2, ceea ce face ca atenuarea unilateral\u0103 s\u0103 fie prohibitiv de costisitoare. Cu toate acestea, noile noastre estim\u0103ri sugereaz\u0103 c\u0103 DCC-ul SUA va fi de 211 USD\/tCO2, dep\u0103\u0219ind semnificativ costurile politicilor. \u00cen acest caz, politicile unilaterale de reducere a carbonului sunt rentabile pentru Statele Unite.\u201d<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Lec\u021bia<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Mark Z. Jacobson este profesor de inginerie civil\u0103 \u0219i ambiental\u0103 \u0219i director al Programului Atmosfer\u0103\/Energie de la Universitatea Stanford. El \u0219tie c\u00e2teva lucruri despre \u00eenc\u0103lzirea global\u0103 \u0219i despre cum s\u0103 ac\u021bioneze pentru a atenua efectele sale. El este, de asemenea, un bun prieten al CleanTechnica, av\u00e2nd <a href=\"https:\/\/cleantechnica.com\/2022\/02\/21\/renewable-energy-zero-blackouts-millions-of-new-jobs-mark-z-jacobson\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">scris numeroase articole<\/a> pentru mica noastr\u0103 comunitate de pe marginea internetului. L-am \u00eentrebat pe profesorul Jacobson ce crede despre aceast\u0103 cercetare economic\u0103 recent\u0103, iar el a r\u0103spuns: <strong>\u201eAcest studiu se adaug\u0103 unei liste tot mai mari de studii care sugereaz\u0103 c\u0103 costul social al carbonului \u0219i daunele economice din cauza schimb\u0103rilor climatice sunt mult mai mari dec\u00e2t se credea anterior.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Oceanele acoper\u0103 aproape dou\u0103 treimi din planeta noastr\u0103. Ignorarea efectelor apei mai calde a oceanelor datorit\u0103 \u00eenc\u0103lzirii globale duce pur \u0219i simplu la rezultate nerealiste.<\/strong> Oamenii pot s\u0103 se certe cu concluziile lui Bilal \u0219i K\u00e4nzig \u2013 este costul social al carbonului peste o mie de dolari pe ton\u0103 sau doar 574,22 USD? Astfel de \u00eentreb\u0103ri sunt ca \u0219i cum ai \u00eentreba c\u00e2\u021bi \u00eengeri pot dansa pe v\u00e2rful unui ac. Valoarea primar\u0103 a studiului este c\u0103, atunci c\u00e2nd examin\u0103m impactul economic al \u00eenc\u0103lzirii globale, trebuie s\u0103 lu\u0103m \u00een considerare \u00eentreaga P\u0103m\u00e2nt, nu doar suprafe\u021bele uscate. Doar pentru asta, merit\u0103 un Premiul Nobel.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-size: 8pt;\">Sursa: <a href=\"https:\/\/cleantechnica.com\/2024\/06\/13\/new-analysis-finds-economic-impact-of-global-heating-6-times-greater-than-expected\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CleanTechnica<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Impactul macroeconomic al schimb\u0103rilor climatice: Temperatur\u0103 global\u0103 vs. local\u0103 Adrien Bilal &#038; Diego R. K\u00e4nzig &#8211; Mai 2024 \u201eConform estim\u0103rilor din studiu, daunele macroeconomice ale schimb\u0103rilor climatice sunt de \u0219ase ori mai mari dec\u00e2t se credea anterior. Exploat\u0103m variabilitatea natural\u0103 a temperaturii globale \u0219i ne baz\u0103m pe abaterile seriilor temporale. O cre\u0219tere de 1\u00b0C a temperaturii globale duce la o sc\u0103dere de 12% a PIB-ului mondial. \u0218ocurile de temperatur\u0103 global\u0103 sunt mult mai puternic corelate cu evenimentele climatice extreme dec\u00e2t \u0219ocurile de temperatur\u0103 la nivel de \u021bar\u0103, utilizate \u00een mod obi\u0219nuit \u00een literatura de specialitate, ceea ce explic\u0103 de ce estimarea noastr\u0103 este semnificativ mai mare. Folosim dovezi de form\u0103 redus\u0103 pentru a estima func\u021bii structurale de daune \u00eentr-un model standard de cre\u0219tere neoclasic. Rezultatele noastre sugereaz\u0103 un cost social al carbonului de 1.056 USD pe ton\u0103 (Mai 2024). (Actualizare: August 2024 1065 USD\/ton\u0103 CO2, Noiembrie 2024 aceast\u0103 valoare a fost 1367 USD\/ton\u0103 CO2, iar p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een Septembrie 2025 a crescut la 1500 USD\/ton\u0103 CO2 &#8230;sec.) Un scenariu standard de \u00eenc\u0103lzire duce la o pierdere de bun\u0103stare de 31% \u00een termeni de valoare actual\u0103. \ufeff Ambele sunt de ordin de m\u0103rime mai mari dec\u00e2t estim\u0103rile anterioare \u0219i implic\u0103 faptul c\u0103 politicile unilaterale de reducere a carbonului sunt rentabile pentru \u021b\u0103ri mari precum Statele Unite.\u201d &#8211; acesta este rezumatul unui nou rezultat de cercetare cu urm\u0103toarele detalii. O nou\u0103 analiz\u0103 arat\u0103 c\u0103 impactul economic al \u00eenc\u0103lzirii globale este de 6 ori mai mare dec\u00e2t era a\u0219teptat \u00cen 2018, William Nordhaus a primit Premiul Nobel pentru Economie pentru cercetarea sa, care a demonstrat c\u0103 o cre\u0219tere de 1\u00b0C a temperaturii medii globale ar duce la o sc\u0103dere de 1-3% a produc\u021biei economice globale. De atunci, aceasta a fost viziunea conven\u021bional\u0103 asupra impacturilor economice ale \u00eenc\u0103lzirii globale, dar un nou studiu realizat de Adrien Bilal de la Universitatea Harvard \u0219i Diego K\u00e4nzig de la Universitatea Northwestern ajunge la o concluzie foarte diferit\u0103. \u00cen lucrarea lor de cercetare intitulat\u0103 \u201eImpactul macroeconomic al schimb\u0103rilor climatice\u201d, publicat\u0103 \u00een mai 2024: Temperatur\u0103 global\u0103 vs. local\u0103, ei concluzioneaz\u0103 c\u0103 impactul economic al \u00eenc\u0103lzirii globale este de \u0219ase ori mai mare dec\u00e2t ceea ce a afirmat Nordhaus. \u00cen introducere, autorii explic\u0103: \u201eAjungem la aceast\u0103 concluzie \u00een doi pa\u0219i. \u00cen primul r\u00e2nd, ne baz\u0103m pe o abordare de prognoz\u0103 local\u0103 a seriilor temporale pentru a estima impactul \u0219ocurilor de temperatur\u0103 global\u0103 asupra produsului intern brut (PIB).\u201d \u201eAceast\u0103 abordare exploateaz\u0103 variabilitatea natural\u0103 a temperaturii medii globale \u2013 sursa de fluctua\u021bie cea mai apropiat\u0103 de schimb\u0103rile climatice \u2013 despre care ar\u0103t\u0103m c\u0103 este un predictor mult mai puternic al evenimentelor climatice extreme dec\u00e2t temperatura la nivel de \u021bar\u0103. Constat\u0103m c\u0103 o cre\u0219tere de 1\u00b0C a temperaturii globale reduce PIB-ul mondial cu 12% la punctul s\u0103u maxim. \u00cen al doilea r\u00e2nd, folosim rezultatele noastre de form\u0103 redus\u0103 pentru a estima func\u021bii structurale de daune \u00eentr-un model simplu de cre\u0219tere neoclasic. Constat\u0103m c\u0103 schimb\u0103rile climatice duc la o pierdere de bun\u0103stare de 31% \u00een valoare actual\u0103 \u0219i la un cost social al carbonului de 1.056 USD pe ton\u0103.\u201d Impactul masiv al \u00eenc\u0103lzirii globale asupra economiei Neue Z\u00fcrcher Zeitung, un ziar de limb\u0103 german\u0103 elve\u021bian fondat \u00een 1780, este cunoscut pentru reportajele sale detaliate despre afacerile interna\u021bionale. \u00centr-un articol despre cercetarea economic\u0103 realizat\u0103 de Bilal \u0219i K\u00e4nzig, se scrie c\u0103 efectele pe termen lung ale \u00eenc\u0103lzirii globale asupra economiei ar fi enorme \u2013 comparabile cu Marea Depresiune din anii 1930. Cu toate acestea, aceasta a fost doar un eveniment temporar (de\u0219i cei afecta\u021bi nu au sim\u021bit-o ca atare), \u00een timp ce schimb\u0103rile climatice vor avea un impact timp de secole. K\u00e4nzig, de origine elve\u021bian\u0103, a declarat pentru NZZ: \u201eC\u00e2nd am v\u0103zut pentru prima dat\u0103 rezultatul, am fost \u0219oca\u021bi.\u201d El \u0219i coautorul s\u0103u, Adrien Bilal, au revizuit cercetarea \u0219i au testat \u00een mod repetat modelul utilizat. Dar, \u00een cele din urm\u0103, au fost convin\u0219i de rezultatele lor, care sunt deosebit de surprinz\u0103toare din perspectiv\u0103 economic\u0103. \u201ePe de alt\u0103 parte, rezultatul este foarte \u00een concordan\u021b\u0103 cu cercet\u0103rile din \u0219tiin\u021ba climatic\u0103\u201d, a spus K\u00e4nzig. \u201eC\u00e2nd vorbim cu oamenii de \u0219tiin\u021b\u0103 care studiaz\u0103 clima, ei picteaz\u0103 o imagine mult mai dramatic\u0103\u201d dec\u00e2t ceea ce a prezentat William Nordhaus acum \u0219ase ani. De unde provine aceast\u0103 discrepan\u021b\u0103 \u00eentre cercet\u0103rile anterioare \u0219i noul studiu? La urma urmei, diferen\u021ba este destul de uluitoare. K\u00e4nzig \u0219i Bilal au observat c\u0103 calculele anterioare ale modelelor economice foloseau date meteorologice specifice fiec\u0103rei \u021b\u0103ri pentru a trage concluzii despre impacturile economice. Cu toate acestea, aceast\u0103 analiz\u0103 ignor\u0103 faptul c\u0103 schimb\u0103rile climatice sunt un fenomen global. Datele specifice fiec\u0103rei \u021b\u0103ri, de exemplu, nu includ temperaturile oceanelor, de\u0219i acestea influen\u021beaz\u0103 foarte mult modul \u00een care se dezvolt\u0103 furtunile \u00eenainte de a se deplasa \u00een interiorul uscatului. Analiz\u0103 cuprinz\u0103toare Concluzia general\u0103 a studiului este c\u0103 evenimentele meteorologice extreme, cum ar fi valurile de c\u0103ldur\u0103, ploile toren\u021biale sau v\u00e2nturile puternice, vor cre\u0219te mai mult dec\u00e2t se presupunea anterior \u00een modelele economice utilizate. Cu c\u00e2t sunt mai multe valuri de c\u0103ldur\u0103, cu at\u00e2t scade productivitatea, nu doar pentru lucr\u0103torii din exterior, ci \u0219i pentru cei din birouri. Evenimente precum \u00eentreruperile de curent sunt, de asemenea, mai probabile s\u0103 apar\u0103. O alt\u0103 abordare nou\u0103 a studiului este c\u0103 analizeaz\u0103 nu doar daunele cauzate de sc\u0103derea productivit\u0103\u021bii, ci \u0219i pierderile de capital. \u201ePloile, inunda\u021biile sau furtunile vor provoca daune semnificative infrastructurii\u201d, spune K\u00e4nzig. Drumurile, liniile electrice \u0219i alte infrastructuri vor fi distruse. Aceast\u0103 cercetare recent\u0103 arat\u0103 c\u0103, deoarece daunele poten\u021biale sunt at\u00e2t de mari, investi\u021biile \u00een protec\u021bia climatului sunt mult mai profitabile dec\u00e2t se credea anterior. Activi\u0219tii pentru clim\u0103 consider\u0103 c\u0103 aceast\u0103 nou\u0103 cercetare ar putea duce la o reconsiderare a politicii climatice interna\u021bionale \u2013 de exemplu, \u00een ceea ce prive\u0219te investi\u021biile \u00een tehnologii prietenoase cu mediul, care vizeaz\u0103 atenuarea \u00eenc\u0103lzirii globale. K\u00e4nzig sper\u0103 \u0219i el la acest lucru. \u201eClima este un subiect care \u00eemi este foarte drag\u201d, spune el. La \u00eenceputul carierei, a efectuat stagii la Banca Na\u021bional\u0103 a Elve\u021biei \u0219i la Bank of England. El voia de fapt s\u0103 cerceteze politica monetar\u0103, \u201edar apoi am realizat c\u0103, av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere importan\u021ba enorm\u0103 a schimb\u0103rilor climatice, se face prea pu\u021bin\u0103 cercetare economic\u0103 pe aceast\u0103 tem\u0103\u201d, a spus el. Reac\u021bia la \u201eCercetarea\u201d De la publicarea studiului, a existat un acord larg \u00een comunit\u0103\u021bile economice \u0219i \u0219tiin\u021bifice, dar au fost exprimate \u0219i critici. Unii sus\u021bin c\u0103 calculele utilizate \u00een cel mai recent model nu iau \u00een considerare faptul c\u0103 lumea se adapteaz\u0103 la schimb\u0103rile climatice. K\u00e4nzig spune c\u0103 aceasta este o obiec\u021bie valid\u0103. \u201eDar ast\u0103zi, nimeni nu poate spune c\u00e2t va investi de fapt lumea \u00een m\u0103suri de adaptare.\u201d Al\u021bii critic\u0103 faptul c\u0103 rezultatele sunt prea optimiste, deoarece analiza nu \u021bine cont de a\u0219a-numitele puncte de inflexiune \u2013 evenimente \u00een care un ecosistem se pr\u0103bu\u0219e\u0219te din cauza \u00eenc\u0103lzirii \u2013 care ar avea consecin\u021be catastrofale. K\u00e4nzig a spus c\u0103 r\u0103m\u00e2ne convins c\u0103 daunele economice cauzate de schimb\u0103rile climatice au fost subestimate semnificativ p\u00e2n\u0103 acum \u0219i c\u0103 fiecare nou\u0103 perspectiv\u0103, cum ar fi acest nou studiu, serve\u0219te la informarea oamenilor despre gravitatea crizei climatice iminente rezultat\u0103 din \u00eenc\u0103lzirea global\u0103. Concluzii despre \u00eenc\u0103lzirea global\u0103 \u0219i economie \u00cen concluzia cercet\u0103rii lor, autorii scriu: \u201e\u00cen acest studiu, ar\u0103t\u0103m c\u0103 impactul schimb\u0103rilor climatice asupra activit\u0103\u021bii economice este semnificativ. Exploat\u00e2nd variabilitatea natural\u0103 a temperaturii medii globale, ob\u021binem estim\u0103ri ale seriilor temporale care sunt reprezentative pentru efectele generale ale \u00eenc\u0103lzirii globale. Constat\u0103m c\u0103 o cre\u0219tere de 1\u00b0C a temperaturii globale reduce \u00een mod persistent PIB-ul global, cu o pierdere maxim\u0103 de 12%. Acest efect mare se datoreaz\u0103 cre\u0219terii evenimentelor climatice extreme.\u201d \u201e\u00cen schimb, \u0219ocurile de temperatur\u0103 local\u0103 utilizate \u00een literatura de specialitate tradi\u021bional\u0103 duc la cre\u0219teri minime ale evenimentelor extreme \u0219i la impacturi economice mult mai mici. Rezultatele noastre implic\u0103 colectiv un cost social al carbonului (SCC) de 1.056 USD\/tCO2 \u0219i o pierdere de bun\u0103stare de 31% \u00eentr-un scenariu moderat de \u00eenc\u0103lzire. Aceste impacturi sunt comparabile cu a duce un r\u0103zboi major pe teritoriul propriu pentru totdeauna (sublinierea ad\u0103ugat\u0103). Rezultatele noastre nu doar arat\u0103 c\u0103 schimb\u0103rile climatice reprezint\u0103 o amenin\u021bare serioas\u0103 pentru economia global\u0103, dar au \u0219i implica\u021bii semnificative pentru politicile de reducere a carbonului. Multe interven\u021bii de reducere a carbonului cost\u0103 \u00eentre 27 \u0219i 95 USD pe ton\u0103 de CO2 redus\u0103. Valoarea tradi\u021bional\u0103 a SCC (151 USD\/tCO2) implic\u0103 faptul c\u0103 aceste politici sunt rentabile doar dac\u0103 guvernele internalizeaz\u0103 beneficiile pentru \u00eentreaga lume, a\u0219a cum este captat de SCC. Cu toate acestea, un guvern care internalizeaz\u0103 doar beneficiile interne evalueaz\u0103 beneficiile atenu\u0103rii folosind costul intern al carbonului (DCC).\u201d \u201eDCC-ul este \u00eentotdeauna mai mic dec\u00e2t SCC-ul, deoarece daunele pentru o singur\u0103 \u021bar\u0103 sunt mai mici dec\u00e2t daunele pentru \u00eentreaga lume. De exemplu, estim\u0103rile tradi\u021bionale bazate pe \u0219ocuri locale sugereaz\u0103 c\u0103 DCC-ul SUA este de 30 USD\/tCO2, ceea ce face ca atenuarea unilateral\u0103 s\u0103 fie prohibitiv de costisitoare. Cu toate acestea, noile noastre estim\u0103ri sugereaz\u0103 c\u0103 DCC-ul SUA va fi de 211 USD\/tCO2, dep\u0103\u0219ind semnificativ costurile politicilor. \u00cen acest caz, politicile unilaterale de reducere a carbonului sunt rentabile pentru Statele Unite.\u201d Lec\u021bia Mark Z. Jacobson este profesor de inginerie civil\u0103 \u0219i ambiental\u0103 \u0219i director al Programului Atmosfer\u0103\/Energie de la Universitatea Stanford. El \u0219tie c\u00e2teva lucruri despre \u00eenc\u0103lzirea global\u0103 \u0219i despre cum s\u0103 ac\u021bioneze pentru a atenua efectele sale. El este, de asemenea, un bun prieten al CleanTechnica, av\u00e2nd scris numeroase articole pentru mica noastr\u0103 comunitate de pe marginea internetului. L-am \u00eentrebat pe profesorul Jacobson ce crede despre aceast\u0103 cercetare economic\u0103 recent\u0103, iar el a r\u0103spuns: \u201eAcest studiu se adaug\u0103 unei liste tot mai mari de studii care sugereaz\u0103 c\u0103 costul social al carbonului \u0219i daunele economice din cauza schimb\u0103rilor climatice sunt mult mai mari dec\u00e2t se credea anterior.\u201d Oceanele acoper\u0103 aproape dou\u0103 treimi din planeta noastr\u0103. Ignorarea efectelor apei mai calde a oceanelor datorit\u0103 \u00eenc\u0103lzirii globale duce pur \u0219i simplu la rezultate nerealiste. Oamenii pot s\u0103 se certe cu concluziile lui Bilal \u0219i K\u00e4nzig \u2013 este costul social al carbonului peste o mie de dolari pe ton\u0103 sau doar 574,22 USD? Astfel de \u00eentreb\u0103ri sunt ca \u0219i cum ai \u00eentreba c\u00e2\u021bi \u00eengeri pot dansa pe v\u00e2rful unui ac. Valoarea primar\u0103 a studiului este c\u0103, atunci c\u00e2nd examin\u0103m impactul economic al \u00eenc\u0103lzirii globale, trebuie s\u0103 lu\u0103m \u00een considerare \u00eentreaga P\u0103m\u00e2nt, nu doar suprafe\u021bele uscate. Doar pentru asta, merit\u0103 un Premiul Nobel. Sursa: CleanTechnica<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":473463,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_cloudinary_featured_overwrite":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[69],"tags":[32],"class_list":["post-467912","page","type-page","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tudomany","tag-william-nordhaus"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Impactul macroeconomic al schimb\u0103rilor climatice<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Eredm\u00e9nyeink szerint a sz\u00e9n-dioxid t\u00e1rsadalmi k\u00f6lts\u00e9ge tonn\u00e1nk\u00e9nt 1056 USD. 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